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Posted on Nov 04, 2024 / Politics / USA

Detailed preview of the main elections.

The US presidential election will take place tomorrow. Here is the detailed preview about who the electors are, which states are considered swing states, why Donald Trump can win, whether pollsters may underestimate Kamala Harris, and when we will know the winner.

There is currently no favorite in the presidential race. Mathematical models estimate the probability of victory for both candidates roughly equally.

In fact, many pollsters show such similar levels of support for Harris and Trump that some analysts accuse sociologists of “herd” behavior: they are so afraid of publishing polls with an advantage in favor of one of the candidates that they may be adjusting the sample until they get a roughly equal result — otherwise such a small spread of poll results is statistically improbable.

Which states will decide?

Most states have a long-standing tradition of voting for one of the parties. New Yorkers have voted for the Democratic candidate in presidential elections for decades, and Texas has long supported the Republicans. The outcome of each election depends on a small number of “swing” states.

The list gradually changes due to demographic and political factors. This time, seven states will be decisive - they can be divided into three groups.

First, these are Nevada and Arizona in the south of the country - they have 6 and 11 electors, respectively. Arizona was a “red”, pro-Republican state for a very long time, but has moved sharply to the left in the last 10 years, and Joe Biden won there in 2020. Nevada is more to the left, but in recent decades the results of the vote in the state coincide with the results of elections across the country: local residents supported both Democrats and Republicans, who eventually became presidents.

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